THE DEAL UNVEILS ITS "DEAL ECONOMY FORECAST"

Special report analyzes banking regulation that could be imposed in the next administration

September 8, 2008--NEW YORK, N.Y.--The Deal, the business and financial newsweekly, (www.TheDeal.com) today looks ahead to the fall and predicts where the deal economy is headed. The features in the "Deal Economy Forecast" examine the Treasury Department's attempt to overhaul financial markets regulation and what's likely to be enacted in the next administration.
 

In "Out of order," Washington bureau chief Bill McConnell discusses how Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's blueprint for capital markets reform has been overtaken by political reality. McConnell notes it is doubtful that a sweeping reorganization of financial regulators will go through--the changes are considered controversial, they will create jurisdictional battles within Congress and, most importantly, there is the shaky condition of the country's commercial banks and thrifts.

McConnell offered his thoughts on the plan and what's in store for the next Treasury secretary on American Public Media's Marketplace radio program on Sept. 5: http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/09/05/pm_mcconnell_commentary/  

In the second story of the special report, "Trial Balloons," McConnell takes a look at the most talked about possibilities to lead the Department of the Treasury in either a McCain or Obama administration.

In a McCain administration, McConnell predicts the candidates most likely to run the Treasury include: Phil Gramm, a UBS Investment Bank vice chairman and ex-U.S. senator; Carly Fiorina, the former chairwoman and CEO of Hewlett-Packard Co.; Martin Feldstein, a revered GOP political figure and now Harvard University economics professor; and Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economist and former director of the Congressional Budget Office.

In an Obama administration, McConnell predicts the strongest contenders are Laura Tyson, a former chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers; Timonthy Geitner, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Stuart Eizenstat, now a partner at Covington & Burling LLP; and Austan Goolsbee, Obama's closet economic adviser.

In "Crisis, response, crisis," senior writer Vipal Monga speaks with Gilbert T. Schwartz, founding partner of Washington-based law firm Schwartz & Ballen LLP about the breadth of the banking crisis and the regulatory response to it.

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