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The risk-reward ratio of emerging markets

Posted on May 30, 2008 at 11:00 AM
Filed under: Deal International
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When we write about emerging markets these days -- as we did in the latest issue of Corporate Dealmaker -- it's often in the context of the plentiful rewards -- emerging middle classes, consumer interest in Western brands, eager local partners and the like. But Friday's Wall Street Journal (subscription required) article about BP plc's escalating drama in Russia is a reminder of just how risky those investments can be. 

According to the WSJ, BP's partner in its 50-50 joint venture TNK-BP is calling for the removal of the JV's BP-appointed chief executive. The British oil giant is resisting, but there is a lot at stake, and BP has to plot its moves carefully. TNK-BP accounts for nearly a quarter of BP's oil production, and as we've previously reported in The Deal, the venture has been dogged by political problems in its five-year history and Gazprom has reportedly been mulling a bid for the JV. 

It's unlikely BP's drama will deter other foreign companies from pursuing business in Russia -- or other emerging markets for that matter. Piracy concerns, for instance, haven't slowed the torrent of firms heading to China. But it offers a couple of important reminders: to choose your partners wisely, and to have a flexible contingency plan at the ready. - Suzanne Stevens 

Update: The Deal's Renee Cordes reports on TNK-BP shareholder fallout





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