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Sunday, November 22, 
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GM, Opel and Germany's political calendar

Posted on August 31, 2009 at 1:22 PM
Filed under: Counterparties | Deal International | Detroit Breakdown | Divesting and Restructuring
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Over on Automotive News Europe columnist Luca Ciferri has a good piece headlined "Seven reasons why GM is considering keeping Opel."

Some of the reasons have been mentioned in previous coverage of the long-running auction--for example, the desirability for General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM) of keeping control of Opel in Russia, rather than letting the Russian partners of Magna International Inc. (NYSE:MGA) take it forward in that promising market. Magna, of course, is the bidder preferred by the German government, whose funds have been keeping Opel afloat.

But here's a reason that is probably less well known outside auto circles: "Opel's technical center in Ruesselsheim, Germany," Ciferri writes, "is the engineering axis for the Delta compact platform -- the basis for such upcoming cars as the Chevrolet Cruze and Orlando -- and the Epsilon mid-sized platform, underpinning for the new Buick Lacrosse and others."

So how could GM raise the more than $6 billion it would need to keep control of Opel? Ciferri repeats the previously floated idea that other countries where Opel has operations-- Belgium, the U.K., Poland and Spain--might help. The Spanish government said Friday such aid is a possibility. Ciferri also reckons GM could borrow against plants and trademarks around the world, which is what kept Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) out of bankruptcy.

Meanwhile, the German political calendar, a key factor in the negotiations over Opel's fate, moves on. On Sunday a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling party recommended postponing any decision until after the Sept. 27 federal elections, Reuters reports. Merkel's conservatives lost a little ground in state elections over the weekend, but the AP reports she still hopes to form a new center-right government after Sept. 27.

Leaving aside the fact that GM remains officially committed to a sale, would such a government find it politically palatable to help GM hang onto Opel? Perhaps. Another member of Merkel's Christian Democrats last week criticized her for committing so strongly to the Magna bid.-Kenneth Klee



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