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Over the past several months, Dealwatch has delivered executive summaries for the biggest deals, trends, issues...and brawls. We provided details on influential dealmakers and what they're up to, pulling from the expansive archives The Deal's reporters have spent years building while pounding the dealmaking beat. So to commemorate Dealwatch's first Christmas, we have cobbled together a modest wish list of things on our radar screen that we would like to see happen in 2007, and beyond. We may not get everything on our list, but will be sure to remind you where you read it if we do.
1. NO MORE SINGIN' AND DANCIN' How sweet a final end would be to the EMI Group plc-Warner Music Group Corp. tangle—or at least a deal, for one of them. The music publishing heavyweights have circled each other for years about a prospective merger. The latest development, which could lead to an outcome, surfaced Nov. 28, when EMI admitted it was the target of "a preliminary approach."
Following two weeks of speculation, though, about who might win its hand, EMI said Dec. 14 it was no longer in talks with an unidentified suitor (Permira, according to reports, whose $5 billion takeover offer was rebuffed.) The stalled talks with one bidder don't necessarily mean a buyout won't substantiate, writes The Deal's Phineas Lambert, but a game of cat and mouse wouldn't be unusual for EMI. 2. MORE PROXY CONTESTS In the words of one Dealwatcher on how he selects one deal over another: "since it is a fight, it is more interesting..." 2006 was a banner year for shareholder activism, with battles for H.J. Heinz & Co., ImClone Systems Inc., Topps Co., Lone Star Steakhouse & Saloon Inc. and others making headlines, often exhaustively. 2007 will likely offer more of the same and while Dealwatch wouldn't speculate, Carl Icahn will likely be front and center for some. 3. THE $100-BILLION BUYOUT 2006 brought massive take-privates for semiconductors, hospitals, media groups and real estate. What will 2007 hold? Home Depot has been the latest subject of the take-private rumor-mill, with buzz about a $100-billion price tag. But more interesting than the record-breaking ticket price would likely be the structure of the deal—potentially involving a club of bidders and most-certainly highly-leveraged. Stay tuned, shoppers. 4. AN END TO THE TURBULENCE Clouds of bankruptcy continue to swirl around some of the U.S.'s most-troubled Jurassic industries. But what if things finally started to look up for them? Though Delta Air Lines Inc. shot down prospective suitor US Airways Group Inc., which came forward with an $8 billion takeover proposal in November, change seems to be in the air and M&A buzz swirls around United Airlines Inc. parent UAL Corp. and Continental Airlines Inc. and AirTran Holdings Inc., which has gone hostile for Midwest Air Group Inc.
5. CRUISE CONTROL Ditto for U.S. automakers, who have faired remarkably well at skirting bankruptcy. General Motors Co.'s talks earlier this year of a three-way deal with Renault SA and Japan's Nissan Motor Co. Ltd., could have prefaced its own turnaround. Then they fell apart and activist investor Kirk Kerkorian slashed his stake in the company. The company's next move, and that of its peer Ford Motor Co., could define their future, and that of their industry.
6. "ONE BANK," REALLY, KNOWN ALL OVER THE WORLD Though we haven't written a song about any of the tie-ups, major U.S. banks just keep getting bigger. Some landmark deals this year could position one to take that coveted cake, including:
And of course, Citigroup Inc., the world's largest bank, which continued its Central America expansion with a $1.51 billion buy for El Salvador's Grupo Cuscatlan in December, marking its second acquisition in the region in as many months and its latest international move after leading a group of investors to take control of China's Guangdong Development Bank for about $3.1 billion the month before. 7. SOME OLD-NEWS DEALS FINALLY PASSING MUSTER Regulatory clearance has been a cramp-inducing hurdle for several deals this year. The completion—or, perhaps more interesting, the dissolution—of the following would be in order:
8. WEB 3.0, 4.0 AND BEYOND Last year eBay Inc. bought Skype SA for $4.1 billion and VC watchers ooohed and aaahed at the rich exit. This year, Google Inc. bought YouTube Inc. for $1.65 billion and much was the same.
9. THE NEXT RADIO WAVE Will 2007 be the year for Sirius and XM Radio to get together? Nobody has ruled it out.
10. PEACE ON EARTH AND AN END TO CORPORATE SCANDAL On this one, we're surely not alone. Categories Deal Video
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