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Sunday, November 22, 
7:05 am

Boeing's Dreamliner a possible nightmare

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Boeing Co. gave itself a well-deserved pat on the back over the weekend when it unveiled its ballyhooed 787 Dreamliner to a crowd of 15,000 workers, analysts and aviation enthusiasts.

The event, held on a marketer’s dream date of 7/8/07, marked a significant milestone for a plane that company officials call revolutionary. Made with lightweight plastic composites and other next-generation materials, the Dreamliner promises to be the most fuel-efficient plane ever assembled, a distinction that could put any airline that does not buy it at a competitive disadvantage until Boeing arch-rival Airbus SAS rolls out a similar model.

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Times are good for Chicago-based Boeing, which has seen its stock nearly double in the last two years. The company has the industry’s hottest-selling plane (with more than 650 firm orders so far and key customers like Delta Air Lines Inc. and American Airlines Inc. expected to soon sign on), and it has used divestitures to streamline its manufacturing operations. The Dreamliner is a model of global manufacturing, with sections assembled in Europe, Asia and across the U.S. before being flown to Seattle for final assembly.

But as is common in this highly cyclical industry, Boeing still has plenty to worry about. The company will need to keep on a tight schedule to deliver its first 787 to All Nippon Airways next May and will likely be forced to either deliver that craft overweight — and owe the customer penalties — or risk falling behind on its delivery schedule.

More troubling for Boeing is that the company has pledged to deliver as many as 10 Dreamliners per month once the assembly line is up and running, but because it has outsourced much of the manufacturing it could be vulnerable to supplier delays that it would have no control over. Airbus, which only two short years ago was the toast of the industry for topping its rival's sales total, has been reeling for nearly a year after it failed to deliver its equally hyped A380 WhaleJet on schedule.

Aviation consultant Mike Boyd on his Web site called the Dreamliner unveiling “the equivalent of letting a genie out of the bottle — a genie that Boeing has no control over, and one that may signal a very challenging future for the company.” Boeing, in proving that the manufacture of a sophisticated aircraft can be outsourced, has opened itself to competition from anyone who has smart engineers and designers even if they lack assembly facilities.

Congratulations, Boeing. Now watch your back. —Lou Whiteman

See story from Seattle Post-Intelligencer
See February 2005 story from TheDeal.com
See Mike Boyd's thoughts on the Dreamliner  





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