Though most of the attention is focused on potential
mergers between Delta Air Lines Inc. and Northwest Airlines Corp., and UAL Corp.'s United Airlines Inc. and Continental Airlines Inc., the rumor mill remains cluttered with talk of rival bids, and smaller deals in the sector as well.
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American Airlines parent AMR Corp. is often mentioned as a potential hostile suitor for Northwest, but industry sources say that the company's reluctance to tackle such a large transaction, coupled with an expected equity infusion by Air France-KLM Group into a Delta-Northwest deal, makes such a scenario unlikely. Instead AMR could pursue smaller Alaska Air Group Inc., which despite its name, does most of its business up and down the U.S. West Coast where American is weak.
US Airways Group Inc., the product of a merger between US Air and America West Holdings Inc., is another wildcard. The company's management team has shown a willingness to do further deals, having lost out on a bid to acquire Delta out of bankruptcy last year. Its small international presence and lingering labor integration headaches from its previous deal has left it on the sidelines so far in these talks, but the company appears well positioned to pounce on any weakness created by a deal or to pick up assets regulators require be divested as part of a merger.
AirTran Holdings Inc., a discounter who tried to jumpstart consolidation last year with its failed hostile bid for Midwest Air Group Inc., is the subject of many rumors as both a buyer and a seller. Some believe AirTran's fleet of small jets and Atlanta hub would interest American, which according to some now regrets its decision to give up on the Boeing 717 aircraft -- AirTran's mainstay -- after it bought TWA Airlines Inc. in 2001. AirTran, which late last year purchased slots in New York and Washington from ATA Airlines Inc., could also make a run for the rest of ATA's scheduled service or for discounter Frontier Airlines Holdings Corp. Frontier, which is trying to hold its own against both United and discount king Southwest Airlines Co. at its Denver base, could also be a target for AMR or any other airline that was interested in building west of the Mississippi.
Southwest, meanwhile, which last month signaled it would be open to a deal if the right opportunity presented itself, could under various scenarios make a play for AirTran, ATA or private equity-owned Aloha Airgroup Inc., which itself could consider buying ATA, according to some speculators. More likely, though, is both Southwest and AirTran joining US Airways in bidding for gates or other assets divested as part of larger deals.
Talk, of course, is cheap, and it remains likely that most of the scenarios that are being talked about will never become reality. But with so many discussions going on, and investors eager for dealmaking given the stress sky-high oil prices have put on margins, it appears multiple airline deals could be on the horizon. However consolidation plays out, it appears the airline landscape is likely to look much different by next year than it does today. - Lou Whiteman
See TheDeal.com story with the latest on potential deals between Delta and Northwest and United and Continental
See DealScape post on Air France's potential investment in Delta/Northwest
See TheDeal.com story on US Airways' failed bid for Delta
See TheDeal story on AirTran's bid for Midwest
See TheDeal.com story on Southwest's interest in dealmaking