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Sunday, November 22, 
6:04 am

Carnac says Wachovia and J.P. Morgan

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Johnny_Carson_as_Carnac.jpgRumors are like weeds: They are really hard to kill. Case in point, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s rumored interest in acquiring a commercial bank -- specifically a Southern bank. The original target of the rumors was SunTrust Banks Inc. Then, it expanded to include Washington Mutual Inc. -- until TPG Capital swooped in. Now, with Wachovia on the ropes, the media and blogosphere have turned their attention to North Carolina.

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The rumor of Jamie Dimon's interest in expanding the bank had been the topic of analyst and media speculation long before J.P. Morgan rode in to save Bear Stearns Cos. from collapse. Take for example a post I wrote in January:

In a conference call Wednesday, J.P. Morgan chief Jamie Dimon responded to analysts by saying, "In terms of buying assets or buying companies, we are very openminded." This offhand comment (well, maybe not so offhand) -- the type of boilerplate response Dimon regularly offers in quarterly calls -- prompted a thundering herd of 300 stories about J.P. Morgan's acquisition plans, according to a Google News query, led by The Wall Street Journal's story, which featured Dimon as a slightly lunatic Indiana Jones-like character searching for treasure. Most of the stories simply regurgitated the SunTrust and WaMu scuttlebutt that had already been around town. However, the Journal added to the list Bear Stearns Cos. and Morgan Stanley, both battered by the subprime mess but both posing considerable complexities to any deal.

Why do these rumors persist? Well, sometimes they actually come true. Besides, Dimon was a protege of Sandy Weill, who built his various empires, including Citigroup Inc., through M&A, so the media always seems to expect him to do something. J.P. Morgan is also one of the strongest banks on the Street, having avoided much of the subprime calamity -- perhaps because it was busy digesting its Bank One merger -- so it's a safe assumption that Dimon might capitalize on his bank's strength as he did with Bear Stearns. After all, before the run on Bear, one enterprising reporter had added the firm to the list of potential J.P. Morgan targets as long ago as January, and now he seems prescient.

There is something gratifiying in the rare opportunity to yell out like Stephen Colbert, "I called IT!" But for every chance to appear to do a Colbert, most rumor-mongering writers end up resembling the late Johnny Carson's Carnac. - Matthew Wurtzel





Comments

From: Jaret Seiberg,

Wonder how many young traders on Wall Street even know of the Carnac character. Matt, you are dating yourself as an old timer.

Jaret Seiberg


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