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Wednesday, November 25, 
10:08 am

Depression chic from a bubble cheerleader

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Chicken_Little_poster.jpg While the Chicken Littles in the mainstream media comb their archives for images of the Great Depression, an unlikely voice of reason emerges from Newsweek and Slate columnist Dan Gross who argues 2008 is not 1929. Gross, in fact, is downright irate over the issue, suggesting he'd like to throw Arthur Schlesinger's "The Coming of the New Deal" at the next person to make the comparison. Of course, if he does toss Schlesinger's three-volume set at someone, they should respond by throwing back Gross' own tome "Pop!: Why Bubbles are Great for the Economy," published in May 2007, just before the bubble, well, burst.

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Gross sums up his distaste for the practice of comparing the Panic of 2008 -- The Wall Street Journal's new term for the crisis -- with the Great Depression with an analogy of his own: "More substantively, the economic trauma the nation suffered in the 1930s makes today's woes look like a flesh wound." He goes on to exemplify those differences:

  • During the Depression, the nation saw unemployment reach 25%, whereas today's economists predict our unemployment will peak around 7.6% next year, according to the Federal Reserve. However, Gross' numbers seem low, as independent economists are predicting unprecedented unemployment levels reaching double digits. Still, probably not Great Depression levels.
  • The Depression that started in 1929 continued for 43 months, whereas today's economists, according to a Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank survey, believe the current recession began in April, and will continue through summer 2009, meaning recovery will begin late next year. However, economics is an imprecise science, meaning economists do get it wrong. That we know.
  • Additionally, Gross points out that we have economic safety nets established in the aftermath of the Depression that decrease the odds of the economy getting as bad as the 1930s, not to mention a more proactive Federal Reserve and Treasury Department.

So why all the Depression comparisons? Gross argues that it is expedient for Wall Street executives to evoke the Depression because it deflects blame. He writes:

Financial executives invoke distant history in part to make up for their own recent shortcomings. If a force as powerful as the Great Depression has been unleashed on the global economy, how can a mere mortal like Merrill's John Thain be held responsible?

So it's Wall Street's fault. On top of everything else, they're abusing analogies as well. In fact, there's been a vast discussion of the Depression from economists and talking heads all over the place, including a Time cover in October. Is there a rule against reading Time at Newsweek? If so, that might explain how Gross missed Niall Ferguson's recent cover story comparing our economic calamity with the Depression in October -- weeks before Thain ever alluded to the Depression. (Ferguson hails from Harvard University.) If anything, Wall Street executives were late onto the bandwagon, only joining after the media and politicians beat it to bloody.

Moreover, Gross offers another apology for Depression chic: It is human nature to use analogies to put events in context. If that's the case, maybe there is a better analogy. For an answer to that, look no further than the box attached labeled "Related in Slate," which suggests a May article comparing the current recession not only with the Depression, but also the last four recessions, which clearly offer better analogies, but don't sell magazines or books. - Matthew Wurtzel

See Gross' column from Slate
See related story from Slate

Matthew Wurtzel is the editor of Dealscape. 





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