When Democrats lost seats in the
2002 midterm congressional election, then-House Minority Leader Richard
Gephardt quietly decided not to run for re-election for that position. With
Republicans losing House seats in both 2006 and 2008, expect GOP
members to push for changes to their leadership. That could mean the
ouster of House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, or GOP Whip Roy
Blunt, R-Mo. Possible replacement candidates include Reps. Paul Ryan,
38, R-Wisc. and Eric Cantor, 45, R-Va., both lawmakers that led a high-profile ultimately unsuccessful effort to topple Treasury Secretary
Henry Paulson's $700 billion government purchase plan.
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According to Darryl Nirenberg, deputy chair in Patton Boggs public
policy department, Cantor and Ryan may see the losses in their party as
an opportunity to step up. The Republican Study Committee, a
conservative caucus within the Republican party, now has a strengthened
position for GOP lawmakers, Nirenberg contends. Previous members Tom
Delay and Dick Cheney have gone on to strong positions within the
Republican party. Opposition to Paulson's package emerged from this
committee.
One glimmer of positive news for Republicans was the re-election of
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. McConnell understands the
intricacies of the parliamentary rules on Capitol Hill, and legislative
observers expect that he is best positioned to protect GOP interests in
the Senate. His ouster would likely have meant the installation of the
less experienced Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., to the position.
On
the Democratic side, look for Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., to remain
chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, a panel that will be at the
center of restructuring on Capitol Hill. Less likely is for Dodd to
decide to be chair of the prestigious Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, where Vice President-elect Joe Biden is leaving a vacancy.
Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, may take over the Senate Appropriations
Committee (after the ouster of Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va.) leaving the
position of Senate Commerce Committee chairman to John Rockefeller, D-
W.Va. All this may leave Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., as chair of the
prestigious and powerful Senate Rules Committee. -
Ron OrolRon Orol is a Washington-based reporter for The Deal and author of Extreme Value Hedging: How Activist Hedge Fund Managers Are Taking on the World.
