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Sunday, November 22, 
4:21 am

Investors say bottom near for distressed debt

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It's no secret that distressed debt is being closely studied by investors seeking to capitalize on today's down market. Loans and bonds are currently trading at deep discounts, but when it comes to buying them, timing is crucial as investors at the TMA/The Deal's Distressed Investing Conference in Las Vegas pointed out. A survey released by Debtwire on Tuesday reaffirms their point of view-- pointing out that many investors tend to believe the market bottom will occur in the first half of this year.

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In total, Debtwire queried 100 hedge funds, proprietary trading desk and other asset managers on their expectations for the North American distressed debt market in 2009.

About 33% of those interviewed believe that the best time to invest in distressed debt is basically now -- the first quarter of this year -- as President Obama's economic stimulus plan is rolled out. However, 46% of respondents felt they could wait until the second quarter before ramping up investment.

KPS Capital Partners, LP's David Shapiro, one of the panelists' at The Deal's Distressed Investing Conference agrees. In this video Shapiro says 2009 and 2010 will be the busiest years for distressed investing and outlined his firm's strategy.


To be sure, the distress felt by companies is widespread and growing. Standard & Poor's expects the U.S. default rate on corporate speculative-grade debt to skyrocket this year to an all-time high of 13.9%. In December 2008, the default rate was 4.02%.

Not surprisingly, the financial services and auto sectors are expected to present the most opportunity for distressed investment this year, according to Debtwire. Consumer products tied for third with energy and chemicals; just behind were the construction, industrial and retail industries.

The survey showed that about 56% were targeting returns of more than 20% this year, with only 28% of investors shooting that high last year. First-lien secured bank loans and senior secured loans look most lucrative, followed second-lien loans and convertible bonds.

Meanwhile, the future looks bright for distressed M&A, with 91% of respondents expecting consolidation to increase thanks to a difficult refinancing market. - Christine Idzelis & Maria Woehr

See coverage from the TMA/The Deal's Distressed Investing Conference






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