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Sunday, November 22, 
8:37 am

Will AIG go down in flames?

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That's right. American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG) needs more money and is in discussions with the U.S. government to overhaul its $150 billion government bailout package prior to releasing dismal fourth-quarter results that could top $60 billion.

If what The Wall Street Journal is reporting becomes fact, AIG's "fire sales" would be accompanied by spinning off some of AIG's Asian holdings into public companies, with the government owning major stakes now that stock is down to 40 cents.

The restructuring plan would pay off $60 billion of the government's $150 billion in loans with a combination of debt, equity, cash and stakes in operating businesses, and also include a safeguard of AIG's credit ratings that if downgraded could force the insurer to make its payments to trading partners. (Reports are AIG is still working on a kitchen sink.)

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Who are these mysterious counterparties that AIG would have to spend the taxpayers' money paying off?  Talking Points Josh Marshall guesses that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) is behind it all, and it seems like most investors (what's left of them) want a breakdown of where that money the government loaned the company is going.

The government is going to have to make another move because it has already invested money in the sinking ship. And with most shareholders already wiped out, at this point AIG is practically nationalized. And is there even an alternative to formal nationalization at this point? The Aleph blog argues that the government should let the holding company fail, and file for Chapter 11:

 essentially guaranteed the obligations of AIG Financial Products in exchange for a senior loan that would subordinate all existing holding company debt.  (Essentially a DIP loan, because the holding company would be in Chapter 11.) ...  If large derivative counterparties are so critical to the financial infrastructure, then they need to be regulated as well.  Open the derivative books to the regulator, and let the new regulator set leverage/capital policy.

The Aleph blog suggestion makes sense. One of the major points throughout AIG's restructuring has been the "fire sale" prices of the asset sales due the the rapid decline in the valuation of assets and the lack of financing in the market. So arguably its assets are already selling at distressed prices like a bankrupt company might see. Why not use some sort of bankruptcy proceeding to formalize and organize what so far has been a chaotic process of asset sales?

Here is a list of AIG's asset sales so far:

There are many other rumors circulating out there concerning the timing, value and bidders for the rest of the insurer's assets. Here is the latest roundup.

  • AIG apparently received bids from MetLife Inc. (NYSE:MET) and Axa SA (NYSE:AXA) for its life insurance unit, Alico. MetLife's offer was $11.2 billion, which could drop to about $8 billion because of deterioration in the unit's financial condition, according to Bloomberg.

  • The deadline for AIG's Philamlife unit may have been moved to Wednesday. The sale is expected to net $4 billion and could be announced the first week of March, according to Reuters. The four potential buyers for the Philippine life insurance business are Ayala-owned Bank of the Philippine Islands (which could partner with Prudential Life of the UK or Assicurazioni Generali SpA and Jerneh Asia Bhd of the Kuok Group); Banco de Oro Unibank ( which could be partnered with Assicurazioni Generali SpA); Toronto-based Manulife Financial Corp. Bank of the Philippine Islands; and Hong Kong's First Pacific Co. Ltd., which is represented in the Philippines by the Metro Pacific Investment Corp.
  • International Lease Finance Corp., apparently worth $6 billion to $10 billion, has reportedly drawn interest from several private equity firms including Carlyle Group, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., TPG Capital, Greenbriar Equity Group and sovereign wealth funds Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd., Istithmar World PJSC, Kuwait Investment Authority and China Investment Corp. China Investment Corp. hopes to partner with local banks such as Industrial and Commericial Bank of China and Bank of China to fund the purchase. TPG apparently dropped out of the process.
  • It has been widely reported that AIG is in talks to sell personal car insurance unit, 21st Century Insurance, to Zurich Financial Services.The asset is rumored be be worth $2 billion.
  • AIG is supposedly in the works to sell three broker-dealers to a private equity firm (see The Deal's Pipeline). Rumored bidders include Bain Capital LLC, Hellman & Friedman LLC, Carlyle Group and KKR.
  • AIG Global Real Estate fund management business has around $12.4 billion in assets and $5.2 billion in equity capital. The unit could be sold for about $9 billion. Interested bidders could include BlackRock Inc. and Blackstone Group LP (which might be a conflict because Blackstone is advising). Included in that is its Japanese headquarters in Tokyo, which may bring in more than $1 billion.
  • AIG Edison Life Insurance Co. and AIG Star Life Insurance Co. are also for sale. Bidders could include: Prudential Financial Inc., Manulife Financial Corp. Allianz Group, Aegon NV, Nippon Life Insurance Co., Tokio Marine Holdings Inc., Gibraltar Life Insurance Co. Ltd., T&D Holdings Inc. and Manulife Life Insurance Co. The value is estimated to be around $1 billion.
  • AIG may consider a bid for a majority stake in American International Assurance Company Ltd if buyers submit a compelling offer, according to Reuters. First round bids for AIA are due this week. Prior to today bids were for a stake of 49%, with analysts pegging the sale with an estimate at about $20 billion. However, Reuters' sources say that bidders are only willing to spend $10 billion. Bidders include China Life Insurance Ltd. HSBC Holdings plc, Prudential plc, Manulife Financial Group Inc. and Allianz Insurance Co. It is rumored that CIC, China's sovereign wealth fund, may help China Life Insurance Ltd. fund the deal if Bank of China doesn't bid. Insurer Great Eastern Holdings Ltd. also said it would consider buying Asian assets of AIA, if the insurer decides to sell the assets separately.   

A spokesperson from AIG told Dealscape: "AIG has not yet reported fourth-quarter and 2008 year-end results. We continue to work with the U.S. government to evaluate potential new alternatives for addressing AIG's financial challenges. We will provide a complete update when we report financial results in the near future." - Maria Woehr




Comments

From: Dan D.,

Is AIG an example that trying to bailout these failing companies is not working? AIG has received a $150 Billion rescue package from the government and still is reportedly asking for more help.

When these failing companies are still going under despite multi-billion dollar rescue packages is it time to reexamine the current economic initiatives being promulgated today by the government?

http://www.weeklypoint.com/2009/02/24/aig-fears-60-billion-loss-begs-for-more-taxpayer-money/


From: Ex-AIG IT,

Yes, it is going down in flames that's why they are having a fire sale! Additional money won't do anything but allow this bunch of Sr. Management criminals to keep stealing from the public. How about we raise money by selling taking back the bonuses and selling off the Sr. Management's property first. I hear Greenberg still is fighting to get "his" Picasso back!



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