The Deal
Saturday, November 21, 
4:40 am

Citigroup earnings preview

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bankwatch.gifO.K....so Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s (NYSE:JPM) first quarter earnings were better than expected, but on Friday Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) steps up to the plate. That will be the real test, at least for CEO Vikram Pandit, who announced the bank was profitable during the first two months of 2009.

In spite of its chieftain's bullish statements Citigroup is expected to post it's sixth consecutive loss; and so far Citi has lost more than $28 billion since the credit markets began to unravel in mid-2007.

As CEO Vikram Pandit prepares his speech and wipes his furrowed brow, let's take a look at how this quarter might look.

Bloomberg's consensus data, based on 14 different analyst reports, predicts that the company will be reporting an average forecast a loss of 33 cents a share, according to Financial Planning. Thomson Reuters is forecasting a loss of $1.39 billion, or 34 cents a share, according to CNN Money.

Last week on Dealscape reported:
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) will lose about 32 cents a share in the first quarter, analysts predict, according to Thomson Reuters. Meredith Whitney predicted the bank will lose $5.00 per share this year and $3.50 per share in 2010.

Matters might be complicated by (although it might benefit Citi) is the recent changes in mark-to-market valuation rules that might allow some creative accounting to help brush up the bank's earnings, according to Business Pundit and Bloomberg's Johnathan Weil. The revision of mark-to-market valuation rules by the Financial Accounting Standards Board is giving companies, such as Wells Fargo & Co, (which reported first-quarter net income of about $3 billion) more discretion in their treatment of impaired assets. Although the new rules officially go into effect in the second quarter, companies have the option of applying them to first-quarter results.

Pandit, of course, will be asked about returning TARP money now that Goldman Sachs' Blankfien  and J.P. Morgan's Dimon both seem to have plans to return TARP ASAP. But it's highly doubtful that Pandit can promise the $45 billion the government has put into Citigroup for awhile. The real question analysts will be asking is if Citigroup needs eben more capital.

According to Breakingviews investors are worried:
It may be that investors now see Citi as too big and troubled for the government to support ad infinitum. The bank has $232 billion of senior debt, according to Barclays' estimates, topping Bank of America's $184 billion and JPMorgan Chase's $137 billion.

 - Maria Woehr

Also see:
 
J.P. Morgan: revenue of $26.9B; plans to repay TARP
Is Goldman's rush to repay TARP premature?
Banks' first-quarter results preview

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Comments

From: Nikita Suarez,

This will probably sell off today on the news!!

Short Percent of Float 22.56 %

The gains are from a one time profit after tax of 6.9 Billion from the partial sell of stake in Smith Barney but it's still a gain profit..

via: Citigroup Earnings Report


From: Nikita Suarez,

this will probably sell off today on the news!!

Short Percent of Float 22.56 %

The gains are from a one time profit after tax of 6.9 Billion from the partial sell of stake in Smith Barney but it's still a gain profit..

via: citi earnings


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