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Saturday, November 21, 
9:02 am

What do Goldman's results mean for other banks?

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Goldman_logo125.pngGoldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) took a big step forward Monday in its quest to regain its gold-plated status as the bank that can do no wrong as its first-quarter earnings crushed estimates.

But what do its results mean for Wall Street's other banks slated to release their results through the end of the month?

 

Bank
Q1 consensus
(per share)
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)
$0.02
Citigroup (NYSE:C)
-$0.29
J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM)
$0.31
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC)
$0.36
Source: Businessweek.com

First off, anyone who misses estimates is likely to feel the market's wrath and see the gains of recent weeks quickly wiped away. And any bank that simply hits estimates may also receive increased scrutiny if -- like Goldman -- many other banks blow past analyst estimates as well. With most banks already saying they'll turn a profit in the first quarter, expectations are high that they likely will follow in Goldman's footsteps. But, can the banks keep it up in the second quarter and beyond? 

Additionally, there is chatter that Goldman's plans to payback Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program capital will prompt other banks with strong earnings to also raise capital to do the same.

The Pragmatic Capitalist blog suggests that the coming capital raises are actually Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's real plan to shore up the bank's balance sheets. The blog wrote:

"To the government's credit, I must admit - this is a very clever little scheme to try to raise capital from the public. It goes like this: change the accounting rules, funnel funds to the banks via AIG boosting Q1 earnings, announce the PPIP, announce the stress tests, leak the results and the fact that all banks will pass and then let the earnings do the talking. Then hit the market with billions in capital raises so that the banks can raise capital from the public...Tim Geithner is a clever man, but it's only a matter of time before the tide goes out and the banks are again exposed as being undercapitalized government run ponzi schemes."

- George White

See Pragmatic Capitalist post
See Deal Pipeline story on Goldman repaying TARP

 

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