Sen. Robert F. Kennedy once said, "One-fifth of the people are against everything all the time." This theory was proven with President Obama's March 31 announcement of a strategy to expand offshore oil and gas development.

While a few in Congress praised certain elements of the announcement, or cautiously acknowledged it as a "step in the right direction," others reacted much more negatively. Democrats attacked it because of the potential environmental risk of drilling in expanded areas or because they believe the administration should be investing in alternative forms of energy rather than in conventional ones. Others contended that no "new leasing" should begin until existing leases are developed. Republicans, on the other hand, called the strategy rhetorical, condemned it because it "locks up" more oil and gas than it makes available, and creates more delay than progress. The environmental community called the announcement disappointing, a boon to big oil, a hazard to sensitive coastal areas and fisheries, an assault on the oceans, and a threat to polar bears. Environmentalists also criticized the strategy, claiming that because we consume 25% of the world's oil, but have only 3% of the world's reserves, the benefits of development do not justify the potential harm to the environment.

Industry leaders were calculated in their response to the announcement, calling it a "positive development." Some recognized that it represented one small step in a prolonged, multi-step leasing process, while others were more critical, contending that the strategy actually closed vast areas of the Outer Continental Shelf, or OCS, to development. Others asserted that the strategy should have included a call for Congress to enact legislation allowing all coastal states to share in revenue from drilling off their shores.

Even the administration is signaling uncertainty about the ultimate significance of the announced strategy. During his speech, the president said tough decisions must be made about "opening new offshore areas for oil and gas development" and recognized that some would contend the administration "should not open any new areas to drilling." Interior Secretary Ken Salazar noted that the administration is expanding development "in new areas" and calling for "new oil and gas exploration in frontier areas." He also said the administration's efforts to "open new areas in the Eastern Gulf [of Mexico] would represent the largest expansion of our nation's available offshore oil and gas supplies in three decades."

Subsequent news reports ranged from descriptions of a plan to lift longstanding moratoria, to a design to open vast new areas of the OCS never before considered for development, to a presidential approval to immediately begin limited development. In fact, however, Obama's announcement does not lift any moratoria, but simply represents a preliminary step in a protracted, statutorily mandated process.

The announcement's real significance will evolve over time and will be determined in large measure by the existing legal and policy framework through which the new strategy must be implemented. The OCS Lands Act requires the Minerals Management Service, or MMS, to prepare a five-year leasing schedule for OCS oil and gas lease sales. In order for a lease sale to be held, it must be included in an approved five-year program, the development of which generally takes about two and a half years, and involves three public comment periods, two draft proposals, the development of an environmental impact statement, and a final proposal, which Congress has 60 days to modify. In developing the program, MMS must consider economic, social, and environmental values of renewable and nonrenewable resources, and the potential impact of oil and gas exploration on marine, coastal, and human environments. There is no guarantee that a final proposal will include any of the lease sales considered early in the process.

Additionally, no drilling can begin until several additional steps occur. First, each individual lease sale must be developed. This involves an extensive two-year (or longer) process comprised of several opportunities for public comment, the publication of draft and final environmental impact statements, and state governor concurrences. Once leases are issued, the MMS requires the submission and approval of an Exploration Plan before exploratory drilling can occur, as well as an Application for Permit to Drill. If an operator discovers oil or natural gas, it must submit a development plan.

It is also important to keep in mind that offshore leasing and operations activities are subject to roughly 30 federal laws, many of which require specific permits. These, along with multiple environmental impact statements, give opponents of offshore development numerous opportunities for legal challenges.

Ironically, both the criticism and the credit the administration is taking for energy development in expanded, "newly opened areas" stem from actions taken during the Bush administration. Starting in the 1980s, Congress enacted bills with prohibitions on leasing activities everywhere but the Western and Central Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Alaska OCS. In 1990, President George H.W. Bush issued an executive withdrawal from leasing those areas under the congressional moratorium. In 1998, President Clinton extended the restrictions through 2012.

In 2008, during a period of record high oil and gasoline prices, President George W. Bush removed the executive withdrawal and called on Congress to follow suit. Shortly thereafter, the Democratic Congress passed funding legislation that did not include the decades-old ban. Those actions opened, with a few exceptions, the entirety of the OCS to leasing. One of those exceptions is an existing moratorium on leasing in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico enacted by Congress in 2007.

Subsequently, on its last day in office, the Bush administration released for public comment a Draft Proposed Program that included lease sales in four areas off Alaska, two areas off the Pacific coast, three areas in the Gulf of Mexico, and three areas in the Atlantic. Shortly after taking office in 2009, Salazar announced his offshore energy strategy, which included the extension of the comment period on the Bush administration's Draft Proposed Program. On March 31, as part of its strategy on "expanded energy development," the Obama administration scaled back the Bush administration's proposal, including the cancellation of five Alaska lease sales, the postponement of a lease sale offshore Virginia, the removal from consideration of leasing in the Pacific, and the go-ahead for studies and potential development in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas offshore Alaska, and the Mid- and South-Atlantic.

The questions then, as asked by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, are, "Will the administration actually take concrete steps to finish the studies, approve the necessary permits, and open these areas for production? Will they stand by as their allies act to delay the implementation in the courts?" Moreover, will the Democrat-controlled Congress take the necessary action to open the Eastern Gulf to drilling? Given the recent letter from 10 coastal Senate Democrats opposing legislative efforts to expand offshore drilling, that seems unlikely.

So how significant was Obama's announcement? With the exception of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, the "new areas" were opened during the Bush administration. There are no guarantees that a final five-year program will be as expansive as what the Obama administration is touting now. There was no call for revenue sharing with coastal states. In addition, a myriad of additional regulatory steps must be taken and approvals received before oil from any expanded areas is in the pipeline. These approvals, as well as numerous environmental impact statements, may be challenged, resulting in immense delays to the entire process. In the end, the president's March 31 announcement is not nearly the monumental declaration it has been heralded to be.

Michael Olsen is counsel in the environmental strategies group of Bracewell & Giuliani LLP.