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Chasing growth

by Suzanne Miller  |  Published September 18, 2011 at 8:00 PM

091911 MACD jpmorgan.jpgFor the past several years, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has been like an Olympic champion on a high school track, sprinting past out-of-shape peers without so much as breaking a sweat. In an industry that has staggered through a plague of management, performance and legal woes the past three years, J.P. Morgan continues to retain a certain aura of, if not invincibility, then superiority.

J.P. Morgan is widely regarded as one of the best-run global banks around -- much of that due to chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon, who runs his management team, balance sheet and businesses with discipline and focus. Dimon has developed a reputation for getting his money's worth in tricky acquisitions such as failing Bear Stearns Cos. and mortgage lender Washington Mutual Inc. during the 2008 crisis. He ultimately picked up Bear for $10 a share even though it was still worth $84 a share in book value when the firm went under. The deal gave the bank what it had been waiting for: an opportunity to ramp up its equity prime brokerage business. Soon after, Dimon axed almost half of Bear's staff, reflecting another hallmark of his management style: ruthless cost cutting.

WaMu, meanwhile, vaulted J.P. Morgan into second place in nationwide deposits and significantly expanded its U.S. franchise. And Dimon did it all at bargain prices, though with a certain degree of nail biting.

Dimon has also been quick to exit risks that don't add up. His team famously identified emerging problems in the subprime mortgage market back in 2006 and got out, the only big bank to do so.

In the past few years, Dimon has solidified the bank's reputation by consolidating acquisitions made in the 2008 crisis and maintaining the balance sheet. Still, for all the praise -- some of which resulted in the second consecutive year J.P. Morgan was named as the Most Admired Corporate Dealmaker in financial services -- there remain major questions around future growth and when, or if, Dimon will start shopping in earnest again. This could become more of an issue in the year ahead, as Citigroup Inc., HSBC plc and Standard Chartered plc compete more aggressively for market share in emerging markets -- regions J.P. Morgan, with its big presence in a lagging U.S. market, has said are priorities for its own growth.

A J.P. Morgan official expressed surprise when learning that the bank had won the MACD again. "For what deals?" he asked. In fact, J.P. Morgan has not made a notable acquisition since the end of 2008, which suggests that sometimes not making a deal is the embodiment of corporate dealmaking wisdom. Still, the MACD award looks at the past three years of M&A transactions (in this case, 2008 through 2010), so those who voted for J.P. Morgan had to consider 2008 and earlier acquisitions.

J.P. Morgan and its peers have been holding back on big capital commitments, analysts suggest, at least in part because of uncertainties surrounding pending Basel III capital increases, which Dimon recently criticized as "anti-American." Dimon clearly recognizes the disparity between U.S. and emerging growth. At a shareholder's meeting in May, he said: "Our greatest opportunity is international. We will be opening 20 new locations overseas over the next year and hiring hundreds of bankers and launching hundreds of products."

Despite its success in building up its U.S. franchise, J.P. Morgan may find reaching the top more challenging overseas. It's a big world, and while a number of American and European banks remain hobbled, the emerging-markets growth story is hardly a secret. Citi, for instance, has a large lead in emerging-markets share, generating roughly half its total revenue from overseas, analysts estimate, compared with roughly one-quarter of total revenue for J.P. Morgan; Citi has also been operating in some overseas markets for many years. HSBC and Standard Chartered also command significant market share in Asia and other key emerging markets. Earlier this year, Citi CEO Vikram Pandit wrote in a letter to shareholders that he wanted to reclaim "our company's place as the world's premier international bank."

Today Citi wrestles to shrink itself and has swept many of its noncore businesses into Citi Holdings Inc., which it is working to sell off. The bank's revival could easily stall if emerging-markets growth gets crushed in another recession. However, if growth continues and Citi succeeds in making itself a more tightly run operation, it could yet re-emerge as a formidable foe to J.P. Morgan's ambitions overseas.

"I think J.P. Morgan will probably be measured in their M&A and seeking a more global franchise," says David Knutson, a senior financial analyst with Legal & General Investment Management America. "Bank boards will be looking out and saying, 'Do we have the size and scope to be effective to generate returns on capital?' And that's the kind of discussion that J.P. Morgan is ready to have."

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Tags: Bear Stearns Cos. | Citigroup Inc. | HSBC plc | J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. | Jamie Dimon | Most Admired Corporate Dealmaker | Standard Chartered plc | Washington Mutual Inc.
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