

Search
Structurally the European Union, and in particular the euro zone, is in a fundamental economic crisis. The euro zone has illogical rules for its currency whereby the center can control monetary policy but not fiscal policy -- rules that worked in the good times but crashed when challenged by economic crisis. It has a central bank whose charter is based on price stability and a political system trapped in parochialism. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated, these are Europe's most difficult hours since World War II. Compounding these problems are the recent downgrades of France, Austria and other European countries by Standard & Poor's.
It's also apparent that if the euro crisis worsens, the economic climate in America and China will rapidly deteriorate. The EU is the U.S.'s largest trading partner, with $240 billion of U.S. goods per year going to Europe as of 2010. As a comparison, the U.S. in 2010 exported $92 billion of products to China.
The trans-Atlantic economy -- the trade-linked economies of the EU and the U.S. -- is the largest bilateral economic relationship in the world.
A large percentage of U.S. commodity exports are done via letters of credit that are supported by European banks, and these letters of credit are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain; U.S. banks possibly are sitting on a pyramid of undisclosed so-called balanced risk on debt issued by EU countries. Exposure by six major American banks to credit default swaps on Italian debt alone, for example, may be as high as $200 billion. Overall, U.S. banks may hold two-thirds of the total euro-debt CDSs outstanding.
The EU is also China's largest trading partner. If China's economy slows down (which is currently happening), it will have significant ramifications.
All these facts, however, could be hiding positive changes, often immeasurable that not only could ameliorate the situation but could have an interestingly positive impact on M&A in 2012.
First is leadership. Mario Draghi, the new president of the European Central Bank, appears to see his role in a very different light than the former head of the bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, who had resisted and fought against a more aggressive monetary policy by the ECB. Draghi's forceful decisions in late December to create emergency funding for cash-starved banks prevented what could have been a worldwide financial meltdown. As importantly, Draghi's decision demonstrated to the global financial market that there was someone within the European system capable of taking centralized and direct action.
Giving additional power to Draghi's decision was the coordinated effort worked out three weeks earlier with the Federal Reserve where the Fed cut nearly in half the rate foreign central banks pay to borrow U.S. dollars. While the Fed never said the plan was meant to target Europe, the implication was there. Implicit in the Fed's action was a signal to the marketplace that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke understands the importance of working with and supporting Draghi.
Second is the decline of the euro. If the countries of the euro zone had their traditional currencies in the traditional economic model, they would devalue those currencies to increase exports to aid them in getting out of the current crisis. Obviously, that is not possible, but the crisis has caused a fall in the euro, which might not immediately help Greece or Spain, but will help manufacturing in Germany and to some extent Italy.
Finally, there are the opportunities for U.S. investors. Obviously, the cheaper euro is an advantage, but more important is the regulatory and practical need of European banks to sell assets in order to boost reserves. It's been reported that European institutions will need to deleverage $3 trillion in assets over the next 18 months. European financial institutions are becoming a giant Wal-Mart. In fact, the process has already begun.
The New York Times reported on Dec. 25 that the "Blackstone Group agreed to buy from the German financial giant Commerzbank $300 million in real estate loans that are backed by properties, including the Mondrian South Beach hotel in Florida and four Sofitel hotels in Chicago, Miami, Minneapolis and San Francisco." In the same article Stephen A. Schwarzman, the CEO of Blackstone Group LP, is quoted as saying, "As people become increasingly negative on the environment there [in Europe], we think we are buying good companies at very good values."
Edward Goldberg teaches globalization and international business at the Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College of the City University of New York. He is also president of the Annisa Group.
blog comments powered by Disqus