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Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE:SNY), which is reportedly pursuing an acquisition of Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ:GENZ), definitely has its eyes locked on more dealmaking in the wake of the 33 acquisitions it completed last year, totaling about $10 billion. Chief executive Chris Viehbacher told analysts earlier this year that while the company was not "in any desperate need to have to do a big transaction" to offset expiring patents on its brand-name drugs, it was certainly looking for takeover targets "in a measured way and a thoughtful way."
Does Viehbacher's apparent interest in Genzyme meet that test? The answer will depend, in part, on the price tag, and that's unclear right now.
Healthcare analyst Joshua Schimmer at Leerink Swann LLC said in a note to investors that there is "little way of knowing what is likely to occur or how high [Sanofi] would be willing to go with any offer."
Still, he said he sees good reasons for a Sanofi takeover of Genzyme. "The primary overlap with Sanofi is Genzyme's budding oncology division," he said, with Genzyme's projected revenue at $710 million to $740 million, but that only represents 16% of the company's total revenue. "Sanofi's expertise in oncology could drive greater uptake of Genzyme's revenue."
In addition, Schimmer said that Genzyme's diagnostics division "may be attractive" to Sanofi, and that overall, Genzyme's "diversification is attractive to a large pharma company well equipped to handle multiple moving parts."
He added, "Given the potential that Sanofi could assign value" to Genzyme's pipeline and research and development work "at a time when valuations across the board in biopharma do not, we believe a reasonable value paid for Genzyme could be in the mid-$70s or higher," which would put the value of the deal in the range of $20 billion or more.
Of course, price isn't the only measure of success. Viehbacher will have to take a close look at what he's actually buying.
Les Funtleyder of Miller Tabak & Co. LLC said that he "may be the only person that's skeptical [about a deal being completed]. It feels lonely out here on the limb.
"The real reason I'm not seeing a fit is that Genzyme doesn't have a pipeline," he said, and noted that while genetic disorder drugs Cerezyme and Fabrazyme "have been big sellers, they've had production problems and I don't believe we have clarity when they'll be back to full production."
Funtleyder said that activist shareholders "have wanted a deal, wanted management to do something. I'd like to hear why anyone would want Genzyme. I've yet to hear a strategic rationale that makes sense."
Still, he allowed that he "may be a lonely voice in the wilderness that's about to get run over."
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