Since online video provider Hulu LLC announced a new paid offering called Hulu Plus last week, pundits have asked whether Hulu can successfully charge $9.99 a month for a video service that has been free since its launch in 2007. They're especially interested in how many of the 43.5 million unique viewers comScore Inc. (NASDAQ:SCOR) recorded for Hulu in May will pay to play.

The consensus is that few of those viewers will sign up for Hulu Plus. But the consensus ignores three important facts -- and with them, what may turn out to be a turning point in the long struggle of content owners to gain more control over distribution.

First, that $9.99 is less than a fifth of what households typically pay for cable or satellite TV service. Second, pay-TV customers are quite willing to switch providers, especially for a big price break. Finally, for more and more young people, watching programs on a laptop or some other device at a time of their own choosing is fast becoming the preferred way to enjoy many kinds of programming.

The change won't happen overnight. Hulu's strategic owners -- NBC Universal Inc., News Corp. (NASDAQ:NWSA) and Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS) -- may even be hindering Hulu's success by keeping its old free site alongside the new pay site, which offers HD programming and new ways to get it, including iPads and iPhones. Hulu chief executive Jason Kilar is careful to stress that the service, lacking sports and news, is a complement to cable, not a competitor. The fact that NBCU is headed for ownership by cabler Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is a reminder of the complexities in this 3-D chess game.

Consider, though, that according to Boston-based Strategy Analytics Inc., a price discount of 20% would induce more than two-thirds of pay-TV subscribers to switch providers. That alone puts the 80%-plus price discount offered by Hulu Plus -- current content limitations and all -- in a different light.

It won't be too long before the teens and college students who embraced the free Hulu start getting their own apartments. They've already realized that with cellphones, they don't need wireline telephony. Will they see any need for expensive, old-fashioned cable or satellite TV?