Internet companies and broadband providers will likely know within weeks whether Chairman Julius Genachowski and the Federal Communications Commission will push forward with a plan to overhaul broadband regulations, or wait for Congress to legislate new rules.

Fitch Ratings Ltd. suggested in a recent report that the FCC will likely decide how to proceed on broadband regulations this fall.

The next FCC meeting is scheduled for Sept. 23, the day of the autumnal equinox. Genachowski's plan to reclassify broadband as a telecommunications service, but with fewer restrictions than traditional phone service, would draw flak from communications network operators.

As it stands, a proposal put forward by Verizon Communications Inc. and Google Inc. attempts to assuage Gena-
chowski's main concerns, without imposing potentially stringent regulations. The proposal will not likely sway Genachowski and other Democratic commissioners.

"Bottom line, I think that the Google-Verizon deal isn't good enough," Rebecca Arbogast of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.'s regulatory team said during an August conference call.

There are three sticking points, she said.

First, the Google-Verizon proposal does not go far enough on wireless networks, requiring only that network operators provide transparent information about their services, network management practices and other matters.

Second, she said Google and Verizon drew "sort of a confusing line" between so-called paid-prioritization and managed Internet services. Verizon and Google said they would not give higher priority to data from companies that pay network operators a higher rate. However, their proposal allows broadband providers to manage their networks, which could arguably involve throttling some Internet traffic.

Arbogast's third sticking point is enforcement. Google and Verizon would leave enforcement of broadband disputes to nongovernmental bodies.

It would help if Verizon and Google could gain the support of public-interest groups that have criticized the proposal.

Sherwin Siy, deputy legal director of Washington public interest group Public Knowledge, said Google has taken a "step backwards" from its prior stance.

"The glaring loopholes in this agreement certainly run counter to the spirit of what they've been saying before," Siy said.

Google and Verizon would allow network operators to provide "differentiated services" to corporations that could create a private Internet, separate from the public Internet.

The slim oversight of wireless broadband is another example. "It's not like there is a wired Internet and a wireless Internet," Siy said.

Telecom attorney Owen Kurtin said Google's thinking may be guided by the local phone wars of the late 1990s and early 2000s. The government had tried to open local phone markets to smaller competitors. In the consumer markets, however, Verizon and AT&T prevailed over the government and the competitive local exchange carriers.

Google may have seen the FCC's inability to enforce its broadband goals with the support of the White House and Congress, Kurtin suggested, and decided it was better to join the network operators than to fight them.

Meanwhile, the fall approaches. Fitch projected that Genachowski's plan to reclassify broadband would likely pass a vote of FCC commissioners because of the Democratic majority.

It is by no means certain that the FCC will act before the elections, however. For Google and Verizon to persuade the commission to stand down, they need a bigger tent.