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Uncle Sam may be losing patience as it awaits debt repayment from American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG), with yet another multibillion-dollar asset sale -- Nan Shan Life Insurance Co. Ltd.--falling through. But a transaction for the Taiwanese insurer may yet transpire, with other potential buyers waiting in the wings.
AIG said Tuesday that Taiwanese regulators blocked its $2.15 billion Nan Shan sale to Hong Kong's China Strategic Holdings Ltd. and Primus Financial Holdings Ltd. due to concerns about the security implications. Taiwanese politicians earlier objected to the sale, claiming that China Strategic's business is Chinese-backed and has links to the Chinese government. Taiwan isn't known to look kindly on ceding control of its financial institutions to mainland Chinese investors.
AIG had rotten luck with at least one recent Asian disposition. It failed in June to sell Hong Kong's American International Assurance Co. Ltd. to Prudential plc when Prudential declined to cut its price by about $5 billion to $30.4 billion. AIG plans an initial public offering for AIA that sources expect to generate a fraction of what a sale would garner and could take a considerably longer time. Nan Shan, much smaller and more easily digestible, will likely find a buyer, albeit at a lower price, rather than going the IPO route.
"My sense is that another party will emerge," Standard & Poor's analyst Catherine Seifert said. She said that there were "other bidders that fell by the wayside" when AIG inked the China Strategic and Primus deal.
Seifert said it "may make more sense to sell the company outright" than through an IPO because it's "an attractive franchise and a manageable size."
Nan Shan, Taiwan's third-largest insurer with about 1.1 trillion new Taiwanese dollars ($53 billion) in assets, is a "good brand in an economy that's experiencing growth -- the world is paying a premium for that now," Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. analyst Clifford Gallant said.
Taiwanese bank Chinatrust Financial Holding Co. Ltd. reportedly lobbed a $2.4 billion bid for Nan Shan in late 2009 but failed to agree on conditions imposed by AIG. It later returned with an offer to acquire 30% of China Strategic's pending 80% Nan Shan stake but pulled that offer in June.
Other reported bidders included a partnership between Taiwanese insurer Fubon Financial Holding Co. Ltd. and Carlyle Group, and Taiwan's Cathay Financial Holding Co. Ltd.
Fubon president Victor Kung told Taiwanese media Wednesday that it "would evaluate the possibility of buying any asset at a reasonable price."
No matter how attractive Nan Shan may be, the longer AIG holds onto it, the lower the price goes. "A delay could hurt negotiating leverage," Gallant said.
With an AIA spinoff yet to materialize, AIG had better move quickly on Nan Shan if it wants to chip away at its remaining $26.5 billion Federal Reserve tab.
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