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It pays to have options

by Chris Nolter  |  Published October 18, 2010 at 8:28 AM

NiiHoldingslogo125.pngUncertainty about NII Holdings Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NIHD) sale of a 30% stake in its Mexican subsidiary to Grupo Televisa SA (NYSE:TV) roiled the company's stock late last week. Though shares recovered some value on Friday, the move still represented significant losses from mid-week.

Shareholders may be worried, but NII is well-positioned to follow through on its ambitions.

The investment was contingent on the Nextel Mexico unit purchasing spectrum from the Mexican government in an auction this summer, which occurred despite legal challenges. But even a newly issued injunction likely won't jeopardize Nextel Mexico's ownership of the licenses.

With Televisa's October announcement that it would pay $1.2 billion for a stake in Univision Communications Inc., industry observers speculated that the Mexico City media giant was pursuing a different strategic direction. There was also concern that Televisa might have learned of problems with NII's business.

Even if the deal dissolved, the loss of the funding would not jeopardize NII's plans to build a new advanced wireless network in Mexico. NII would also be able to fund its plans to bid for additional spectrum in Brazil and expand its networks in that country, with minimal repositioning.

"Financing is not an issue for them," said Chris King of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.

NII has about $2.4 billion in cash.

Mexican network expansion would cost $700 million, King said, or about $10 per person covered by the systems.

The invoice for Brazilian spectrum might come to $650 million, King said. Using the same metrics applied to the Mexican network construction, expanding wireless systems in Brazil would run about $900 million.

NII must also make a $1.2 billion payment to convertible noteholders in 2012.

The cost of the Mexican and Brazilian expansions, and the note payments, exceed NII's cash by more than $1 billion. However, King suggests that NII could refinance the notes and take other steps that would allow the company to cover its obligations.

"I'd be shocked if they couldn't refinance the notes," King said. The company's net leverage comes to about 0.4 times projected 2011 Ebitda.

"There's plenty of room and that's before we talk about tower sale leasebacks and vendor financing," King said.

BTIG LLC analyst Walt Piecyk also said that NII could proceed in Mexico and Brazil without Televisa.

"They have an ample amount of cash and their ability to raise capital in country exists," Piecyk said. "Obviously the capital was nice, but the principal benefit to that relationship was Televisa's presence in Mexico and its content."

When the companies announced their deal in February, the logic was that Reston, Va.-based NII had found a local partner with a wealth of both capital and content. Televisa would gain entry to the mobile phone market, augmenting its offerings of television, broadband and landline phone services. As an added benefit, the two companies would not have to bid against each other for spectrum.

The auction results faced a number of legal challenges. The companies said Oct. 4 that the spectrum purchase had officially transpired, and that the deal partners were in talks about whether closing conditions were satisfied.

Reports Oct. 14 had a Mexican court granting Grupo Iusacell SA de CV's request for an injunction blocking NII from using the spectrum.

Iusacell reportedly argued that the auction improperly barred the carrier from participating because of its substantial spectrum holdings.

King notes that if Iusacell won its case, the government would likely allow the company to purchase more licenses and would not block NII from using its spectrum.

Given all the options at NII's disposal, its expansion plans should proceed apace.

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Meet the journalists

Chris Nolter

Senior writer media and telecommunications

Chris Nolter, a senior writer who focuses on media and telecommunications, covers topics ranging from profiles of dealmakers to the inner workings of deals. Contact



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