If there's a potential sticking point for Google Inc.'s [GOOG] $3.1 billion bid for DoubleClick Inc., it's to be found in Brussels. This became even clearer on Tuesday when the European Commission's antitrust unit announced that it's expanding its probe into the deal. Says the EC statement:
The Commission will, in particular, investigate whether without this transaction DoubleClick would have grown into an effective competitor of Google in the market for online ad intermediation. It will also investigate whether the merger, which combines the leading providers of respectively, on the one hand, online advertising space and intermediation services, and, on the other hand, ad serving technology, could lead to anticompetitive restrictions for competitors operating in these markets and thus harm consumers.
Despite complaints from consumer advocacy groups and certain Google competitors, such as Microsoft Corp., antitrust lawyers generally expect the U.S. Federal Trade Commission to clear the transaction. But the EC has been more vigorous in recent years in policing mergers. The Commission's move, while no guarantee of opposition to the deal in Europe, is troubling for Google. In a research note Tuesday, investment bank Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. points out that the Commission launches second-phase investigations in only 3% to 4% of deals. But while it rarely blocks deals, the EC could impose conditions on the transaction that "could compromise Google's efforts to fully exploit the DoubleClick value," Sftifel Nicolaus says.
An EC decision on Google-DoubleClick is expected by April 2. - Olaf de Senerpont Domis
See Nov. 13 statement from the European Commission
See Nov. 6 post from Tech Confidential
See Nov. 13 post from Silicon Alley Insider



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